Divine Comedy or Financial Catastrophe? The 'Evan Almighty' Saga
Universal Studios finds itself in uncharted waters with its latest summer blockbuster. Rather than confidently predicting box office glory, executives are nervously awaiting the Friday opening of "Evan Almighty," Hollywood's costliest comedy production ever.
Box office analysts project an opening weekend of $50+ million, while Universal modestly suggests $40 million. However, with its astronomical budget—reportedly $210 million, though Universal claims $175 million—the film needs global receipts of $250-500 million to achieve profitability, depending on whose accounting you believe.
The marketing strategy has faced unique challenges. Parents initially rejected the film, mistakenly believing it maintained the mature content of its predecessor "Bruce Almighty." This confusion stems from the film's unusual position as more spin-off than sequel, featuring Steve Carell instead of Jim Carrey and carrying a PG rather than PG-13 rating.
Universal's decision to back-load 40% of the marketing campaign has proven controversial. While designed to combat sequel fatigue in a crowded summer marketplace, this approach has frustrated producer/director Tom Shadyac, who reportedly erupted during a marketing meeting. The studio has allocated the standard $50 million domestic marketing budget despite the film's extraordinary production costs.
The production itself encountered numerous obstacles: uncooperative animals, child actor scheduling limitations, and problematic Virginia weather all contributed to budget overruns. Current studio heads Marc Shmuger and David Linde inherited the project upon taking their positions, leaving them limited options beyond renegotiating profit participation deals.
Universal is banking heavily on religious audiences embracing this modern Noah's Ark tale, employing Christian PR firm Grace Hill Media to reach believers in middle America. However, this strategy may misunderstand religious moviegoers' preferences for New Testament rather than Old Testament narratives.
Critics have already noted the film sacrifices humor for heartwarming moments—a departure from Shadyac's previous comedy successes like "Ace Ventura" and "Liar Liar." While tracking numbers for children and young adults have improved recently, the crucial "unaided awareness" metric remains concerning.
As "Evan Almighty" prepares to sail into theaters, Universal executives can only hope their prayers for divine box office intervention will be answered.It's a challenging summer for 'Evan Almighty' as it faces stiff competition and budget cuts. The blame game between Universal and GE is ongoing, with sources suggesting that GE is pushing to reduce expenditures, particularly in movie marketing. A Universal insider revealed, "GE constantly questions the need for extensive network time purchases, especially so far in advance, and wonders why such buys can't be made just a week prior."
Box office experts predict a significant drop in 'Evan Almighty's' second-week attendance due to the competitive landscape. Disney/Pixar's 'Ratatouille,' set to open on June 29th, is receiving rave reviews, while Paramount/DreamWorks' 'Transformers,' scheduled for July 3rd, is generating massive interest. In contrast, 'Night at the Museum' had a modest $30 million opening but went on to earn an impressive $572 million worldwide.
A top executive at Universal, after some persuasion, stated that he would be content with a domestic haul of $125 million before the film’s international release. However, this figure seems modest compared to the film's potential, indicating that 'Evan Almighty' may struggle to reach the heights of box office success.
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